The number of unemployed job seekers registered with Pôle Emploi declined by 175,000 in August. This is the fourth consecutive monthly decline. It makes it possible to make up for 70% of the ground lost since the start of confinement.
As a result of the economic recovery since containment, unemployment continued to decline in August. The number of job seekers registered with Pôle emploi without any activity, classified administratively in category A of the operator’s statistics, fell in France excluding Mayotte by nearly 175,000 (-4.3%) in one month, according to figures released this Friday by the Ministry of Labor. The decline is of the same magnitude as that observed in July.
This new decline in August marks the fourth consecutive monthly decline, and makes it possible to erase 70% of the ground lost since confinement for this category of job seekers, the most followed. At 3.87 million, the number of people concerned is thus even closer to its level at the end of February, driven by a shift in these unemployed people in reduced activity.
A calendar effect?
This is also recently shown by Acoss statistics on declarations of hiring on permanent or fixed-term contracts of more than one month, which increased by 10% in August, returning to their previous level. the health crisis. “This strong increase could however be partly explained by a calendar effect, companies having been able to advance to Monday August 31 hiring usually made in September”, tempered the central agency of social security organizations.
Another encouraging sign, the temporary work continues its convalescence: temporary work fell by 19.6% last month over one year, against a decline of 26% in July, knowing that the month of August 2019 was itself in withdrawal from the same period of the previous year. Services and industry remain the two sectors most affected by the crisis, according to Prism’emploi, the professional union of temporary work agencies.
Will the upturn continue while the new activity reduction measures to curb the progression of the epidemic will force a number of companies to reduce their activity or even stop them? Everything will depend on the duration of the measures which will concern sectors that consume a lot of short contracts, such as restaurants.
A historically high level
Everything will also depend on the effects of the stimulus plan, while the recovery shows signs of slowing down. At this stage, the avalanche of social plans anticipated for the start of the school year has not yet manifested itself, even if, at nearly 57,000, the number of layoffs envisaged within the framework of PES initiated since March 1 is three times greater. as over the same period of last year.
The arsenal of support measures – partial activity, guarantee fund or guaranteed loan to name only the three most important – seems to have delayed the deadline, even if the Medef maintains that the worst is not necessarily the written scenario of ‘advanced. The government, for its part, hopes that companies will make great use of the long-term partial activity mechanism to retain as many of their employees as possible. To encourage them to use it, it has also just waived the planned increase in the remainder of the burden for employers.
In total, the number of unemployed in categories A, B (having worked less than 78 hours in the month) or C (more than 78 hours), reached 6.1 million at the end of August, a very slight decrease compared to July, a level which remains historically high. As a reminder, INSEE is counting on the stability of salaried employment in the second half of the year after the destruction of 715,000 jobs in the first. And on an unemployment rate of 9.5% of the working population as defined by the International Labor Office, at the end of the year.
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