According to the central bank, GDP is expected to increase by 0.2% over the last three months of the year, after increases of 0.3% in previous quarters. A forecast which confirms the idea of lower growth than that anticipated by the executive for the whole of 2019.
Growth should slow slightly at the end of the year. After advancing 0.3% in each quarter since January, GDP is expected to grow only 0.2% in the last three months of the year. This is what the Banque de France provides in a first estimate published on Tuesday.
If these figures, which still need to be refined over the next few estimates, were confirmed, it would be a mixed result for the government. First of all, this forecast – which is based on a monthly economic survey conducted among business leaders – is below that of INSEE at the beginning of October (+ 0.3%).
Then, even if this proves that the French economy is holding up in the face of the global slowdown, it rather confirms the scenario of growth of 1.3% in 2019, that is to say lower than the expected 1.4%. by the executive. Finally, the figures draw a line on hopes of an acceleration in activity at the end of the year, which would make it possible to start 2020 under good auspices.
The measures in favor of purchasing power that were put in place in response to the “yellow vests” crisis have not, for the moment, had the full effect expected by the government. If they have undoubtedly enabled the French economy to withstand the global slowdown, on the other hand they did not play the role of accelerator expected by the executive.
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Less dynamism for automotive and construction
In detail, the Banque de France explains this slowdown in growth by a slowdown in industrial activity. This would be mainly attributable to the automotive sector, whose production is expected to slow in November, according to the business leaders interviewed. At the same time, the other industrial branches remain confident in the future.
In addition, there would also be less good performance in construction business. Even if the order books of this sector “Never empty”, business leaders interviewed by the Banque de France believe that in fact “November, growth would be less strong”. Finally, in services, which experienced moderate growth in activity in October, “Business leaders expect growth to continue at the same pace in November”.
The decline in GDP anticipated by the Banque de France should also weigh a little on employment. In industry, business leaders believe that in October their workforce was almost stable. On the contrary, they fell slightly in services as well as in construction.
Employment: nearly 3.7 million recruitments by mid-2020, according to Adecco